Grid Parity for Wind and Solar Power - Future Outlook and Impact Analysis

Grid Parity for Wind and Solar Power - Future Outlook and Impact Analysis" is the latest report from GlobalData, the industry analysis specialists that offer comprehensive information and understanding of the wind and solar power markets.

The research provides historical and forecast (2006-2020) installed capacity for global wind and solar PV market. The report analyzes Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for wind and solar PV in major countries such as the US, Germany, Italy, the UK, China and India. LCOE for solar PV and wind is compared with conventional fuel sources such as coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) and nuclear power. The report provides analysis on solar PV grid parity and its future outlook for the abovementioned countries.

The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, secondary research and in-house analysis by GlobalData’s Team of industry experts.

Scope
The report analyses Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for wind and solar PV and its scope includes -

• Market overview for solar and wind power in the world and for the key countries such as the US, Germany, Italy, the UK, China and India.
• Historical and forecast (2006-2020) installed capacity statistics for global and key countries is discussed in detail.
• The report analyzes Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for wind and solar PV in major countries.
• Comparison of solar PV and wind LCOE with conventional fuel sources such as coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) and nuclear power.
• LCOE comparison with average retail electricity prices to estimate grid parity.

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Report Details:
Published: June 2012
No. of Pages: 133
Price:Single User License: US $3995 Corporate User License: US $11985

Reasons to buy
The report will enhance your decision making capability. It will allow you to -

• Facilitate decision making based on strong historic and forecast data for the wind and solar markets.
• Estimate future cost trends in solar and wind markets.
• Understand the cost of generation for wind and solar power in major countries such as the US, Germany, Italy, the UK, China and India and frame strategies based on future outlook .
• Position yourself to maximize potential in the growth markets of solar and wind. 

1 Table of Contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Grid Parity, Definition 9
2.2 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Definition 9
2.3 GlobalData Report Guidance 10

3 Wind and Solar PV Market, Global, 2006-2020 12
3.1 Wind and Solar PV Market, Global, Market Overview 12
3.2 Wind Power Market, Global, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 14
3.3 Wind Power Market, Global, Installed Capacity Share by Country, 2011 16
3.3.1 Wind Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity Share by Country, %, 2011 16
3.3.2 Wind Power Market, Global, Annual Installed Capacity Share by Country, %, 2011 18
3.4 Wind Power Market, Global, LCOE Comparison among Selected Countries, 2011 19
3.5 Solar PV Market, Global, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 20
3.6 Solar PV Market, Global, Installed Capacity Share by Key Country, 2011 22
3.6.1 Solar PV Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity Share by Country, %, 2011 22
3.6.2 Solar PV Market, Global, Annual Installed Capacity Share by Country, %, 2011 23
3.7 Solar PV Market, Global, LCOE Comparison among Selected Countries, 2011 24

4 Grid Parity for Wind and Solar PV, The US 25
4.1 Wind and Solar PV Market, The US, Market Overview 25
4.2 Wind Power Market, The US, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 26
4.2.1 Wind Power Market, The US, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 28
4.3 Solar PV Market, The US, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 30
4.3.1 Solar PV Market, The US, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 32
4.4 Wind and Solar PV Market, The US, LCOE Comparison with Conventional Power Sources, 2011-2025 33
4.5 Wind and Solar PV Market, The US, LCOE Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011-2025 39

5 Grid Parity for Wind and Solar PV, Germany 42
5.1 Wind and Solar PV Market, Germany, Market Overview 42
5.2 Wind Power Market, Germany, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 43
5.2.1 Wind Power Market, Germany, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 46
5.3 Solar PV Market, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 49
5.3.1 Solar PV Market, Germany, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 51
5.4 Wind and Solar PV Market, Germany, LCOE Comparison with Conventional Power Sources, 2011-2025 52
5.5 Wind and Solar PV Market, Germany, LCOE Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011-2025 58

6 Grid Parity for Wind and Solar PV, Italy 61
6.1 Wind and Solar PV Market, Italy, Market Overview 61
6.2 Wind Power Market, Italy, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 62
6.2.1 Wind Power Market, Italy, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 64
6.3 Solar PV Market, Italy, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 66
6.3.1 Solar PV Market, Italy, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 68
6.4 Wind and Solar PV Market, Italy, LCOE Comparison with Conventional Power Sources, 2011-2025 69
6.5 Wind and Solar PV Market, Italy, LCOE Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011-2025 75

7 Grid Parity for Wind and Solar PV, The UK 78
7.1 Wind and Solar PV Market, The UK, Market Overview 78
7.2 Wind Power Market, The UK, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 79
7.2.1 Wind Power Market, The UK, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 84
7.3 Solar PV Market, The UK, Installed Capacity, 2006-2020 87
7.3.1 Solar PV Market, The UK, LCOE Range, 2011-2025 88
7.4 Wind and Solar PV Market, The UK, LCOE Comparison with Conventional Power Sources, 2011-2025 90
7.5 Wind and Solar PV Market, The UK, LCOE Comparison with Retail Electricity Prices, 2011-2025 96

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) slipped from an all-time high in production of 885 GWh in 2008 to 862 GWh in 2009. New capacity becoming operational in 2010 pushed production to 1121 GWh and an estimated 1475 GWh in 2011. The wholesale value from this technology, also known as Solar Thermal power, generated $68 USD million in 2008, $102 million in 2009, to $362 million in 2010. 2011 sales should top a half billion dollars at an estimated $545 million.

The cost of the installed base of CSP at the end of 2011 is estimated at $9.5 billion. Of that roughly 93% of the installed base value is in parabolic trough technology. By 2015, that percentage is forecast to drop to 70% as power tower, also called central receiving station technology, becomes more common. The other two CSP technologies, linear Fresnel reflector and the Stirling engine/dish design are decidedly lacking although there are a few small projects going forward.

The seemingly smooth upward curve of CSP productions hides some facts that will impinge future growth. At least 2,250 MW of planned CSP capacity was suddenly switched to PV due to the lower installation costs of PV, among other reasons. Also hidden by the high Spanish feed-in tariff is the somewhat low capacity of the plants in Spain due to less than ideal solar resources. Due to the global debt crisis, Spain had considered cutting its artificially high feed-in tariff, but to preserve investor confidence, has chosen to delay bringing some plants online and limiting the output of others.

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

Published:January 2012
No. of Pages: 240





As 2011 ends, the global capacity of utility-scale CSP will be right at 2 GW with approximately another 2500 to 3500 MW to be operational in 2012, depending on several factors. While some forecasters believe the US concentrating solar power capacity alone will reach 6 GW by 2015, SBI Energy analysis points to factors that suggest an installation rate that while consistent with the opportunities CSP represents, is more indicative of the current global economic and political realities. These factors include the events known as the Islamic Spring, the overall lingering economic doldrums, and current photovoltaic pricing wars as well as utility concerns regarding implementation of renewables on a large scale. While these concerns are not permanent, they will retard implementation of CSP for a few years.

CSP Energy tends to be CSP installation has been directly linked to government interest in the technology. CSP Global Markets provides insight into the current and future utility scale electrical generation CSP markets at both the plant and component level, with particular attention to the solar field elements which represent over 50% of the plant's cost. For every major component, global market size is provided and forecast through 2020 based on the SBI Energy's evaluation of the factors affecting the market growth as a whole.

Report Methodology
The information in CSP Global Markets is compiled from government agency statistics from around the world including from the governments of Spain, Germany, China, India and Australia. Company marketing materials, presentations, and annual reports were studied to gain detailed information. Reports from leading research agencies and universities were analyzed for their broader base perspective. Interviews with vendors and researchers were conducted and international news and industry blogs were monitored to follow the daily moves of this evolving business.

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