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Aug 26, 2010

Asgard, Norway, Commercial Asset Valuation and Forecast to 2024

Asgard, Norway, Commercial Asset Valuation and Forecast to 2024


Norway Market Research

The field is located in the Halten Bank of Norwegian Sea about 200km from mid-Norway and 50km south of Statoil's Heidrun field. The water depth is in the range of 240-300m. It is a major development in the Halten Bank area which serves as the production hub for that area.

Statoil acts as the operator of the field with 34.57% equity share. The field produces Asgard Blend crude oil which is light (48.9° API), low sulphur (0.12% mass) crude oil.

The field comprises the Midgard, Smorbukk and Smorbukk South deposits, which were discovered in the years 1981, 1984 and 1985 respectively. Midgard is a gas and condensate field and located in blocks 6507/11 and 6407/2. The other two deposits containing oil, gas and condensate are located in block 6506/11. These three deposits were unitized into one production license in the year 1995.

The field contains approximately 735 million barrels of oil-in place and 8.2 (trillion cubic feet) tcf of gas-in place reserves. The estimated recoverable reserves as of 31/12/2009 are 710 million barrels of oil and 6.6 tcf of gas. The field life of Asgard is expected to be around 26 years with complete abandonment during 2024. The field is expected to generate $44.8 billion in revenues (undiscounted) during its remaining life (starting 1/1/2010) and is expected to yield an IRR of around 16.03%.

  • The report provides detailed information on oil and gas production, infrastructure, reserves, geology, operator and equity partners and the latest fiscal terms applicable to the asset and provides its fair value (Remaining Net Present Value) based on remaining reserves, forecast production, capital and operational costs, fiscal regime and commodity prices.
  • The report also provides additional valuation parameters like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Pay Back (discounted and undiscounted), Entitlement Production (EP) and Working Interest (WI) to enhance your decision making process.
  • This report provides detailed sensitivity analysis of the remaining NPV with changes in the commodity prices, discount rate, production and key fiscal terms.
  • Detailed cash flows over the life of the asset are included in the report. These cash flows cover a wide range of calculations related to various payments to the government/licensing authority.
  • Interactive Excel models can be used to derive custom valuations, sensitivities and cash flows based on the specific inputs by the user in the model. These custom inputs vary from production data, cost information, price information and fiscal terms information.
Reasons to buy
  • Make well informed investment decisions based on detailed operational analysis and cash flow forecasts
  • Estimate the fair value of your future investment under different economic and fiscal conditions
  • Value a prospective investment target through a comprehensive analysis using focused forecasting and valuation methodologies.
  • Supporting interactive excel model will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner
  • Evaluate how the changes in the country’s fiscal policies impact the cash flows and the present value of the asset
1 Table of contents 2

1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Asgard, Norway, Introduction 5

3 Asgard, Norway, Geology and Formations 7

4 Asgard, Norway, Equity Details 8

5 Asgard, Norway, Crude Oil Reserves 8

6 Asgard, Norway, Fiscal System 9

6.1 Contract Type 9
6.2 State Participation 9
6.3 Royalty 9
6.4 Fees 9
6.5 Special Petroleum Tax 9
6.6 Taxation 9

7 Asgard, Norway, Infrastructure 10
7.1 Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) 10
7.2 Semisubmersible 10
7.3 Storage Vessel (FSO- Floating Storage Offloading) 10
7.4 Pipe-Line 11
7.5 Export Riser Base (ERB) 11
7.6 Shuttle Tankers 11

8 Asgard, Norway, Development Plan 12
8.1 Capital and Operating costs 12
8.2 Phases of Development 12
8.3 Plans for Development 12
9 Asgard, Norway, Crude Oil Production 12

9.1 Full Crude Oil and Gas Production Forecasting for the Field Life from 1999 to 2024 13

10 Asgard, Norway, Economics 14

10.1 Asgard, Norway, Economic Assumptions 14
10.1.1 Forecast Commodity Prices 14
10.1.2 Inflation 14
10.1.3 Discount Rate and Representation of Cash Flows 14
10.1.4 Sensitivity 14
10.1.5 Access to the Economic Model 14
10.2 Asgard, Norway, Cash Flow Analysis 15
10.3 Asgard, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis 16
10.3.1 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Discount Rates 16
10.3.2 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Change in Commodity Prices and Production 17
10.3.3 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Income Tax and Production Rate 18

11 Asgard, Norway, Summary Cash Flows 19
11.1 Asgard, Norway, Front End Load Estimations 20
11.2 Asgard, Norway, Tax Liability 21

12 Appendix 22
12.1 Methodology 22
12.2 Coverage 22
12.3 Secondary Research 22
12.4 Primary Research 22
12.5 E&P Forecasts 23
12.6 Capital Costs 23
12.7 Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) Costs 23
12.8 Operating Costs 23
12.9 Expert Panel Validation 24
12.10 About GlobalData
12.11 Contact Us
12.12 Disclaimer

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Asgard, Norway, Key Asset Data, 2010 5
Table 2: Asgard, Norway, Canada, Reserves Classification, 2010 8
Table 3: Asgard, Norway, Crude Oil and Gas Production, 1999-2024 13
Table 4: Asgard, Norway, Commodity Price Assumptions, 2010-2024 14
Table 5: Asgard, Norway, Project Analysis Metrics, 2010 15
Table 6: Asgard, Norway , Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change, in Billion Dollars, 2010 16
Table 7: Asgard, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Commodity Price Change Vs Production Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 17
Table 8: Asgard, Norway , Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis at 10% Discount Rate over Income Tax Change Vs Production Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 18
Table 9: Asgard, Norway, Asset Summary Cash Flows, Thousand USD, 1997-2024 19
Table 10: Asgard, Norway, Front End Load, Thousand USD, 1999-2016 20
Table 11: Asgard, Norway, Tax Liability Estimations, Thousands USD,1999-2024 21

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Asgard, Norway , Location, 2010 6
Figure 2: Asgard, Norway , Schematic field layout, 2010 6
Figure 3: Asgard, Norway , Equity Partners and Their Equity Stakes, 2010 8
Figure 4: Asgard, Norway , Infrastructure, 2010 10
Figure 5: Asgard, Norway , Oil Historic Production and Forecast, 1999-2020 12
Figure 6: Asgard, Norway , Gas Historic Production and Forecast, 2000-2024 13
Figure 7: Asgard, Norway , Gross Revenue Versus Tax Cash Flow Analysis, 2010 15
Figure 8: Asgard, Norway , Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change, in Billion Dollars, 2010 16
Figure 9: Asgard, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Change in Production Vs. Commodity Price Change, in Billion Dollars, 2010 17
Figure 10: Asgard, Norway , Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Income Tax Change Vs. Production Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 18