The asthma market has seen strong growth, with increased uptake of relatively expensive combination products. This trend is expected to change in the near future as sales growth will slow, and even turn negative, as key products face generic entry. However, by 2021, Datamonitor forecasts a return to positive growth such that the market will maintain value, with a CAGR over 2012–21 of 0.1%.
Features and benefits
- Access Datamonitor’s patient-based asthma market forecast for the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
- Understand how market dynamics are changing and which drug classes will be most impacted in the next 10 years.
- Gain insight into how late-stage pipeline products will change the market and which currently marketed products are insulated against brand erosion.
- See how generics will impact the asthma market and gain insight into which drug classes are the most vulnerable.
Datamonitor forecasts four new product launches in asthma over the next 10 years. New products for asthma across the seven major markets will counteract generic erosion and help the market to maintain value. Datamonitor forecasts the asthma market to increase from $15.0bn in 2012 to $15.1bn by 2021, representing a 2012–21 CAGR of 0.1%.
The impact of generics will vary considerably by drug class. The antileukotriene class is expected to see a rapid decline as Singulair succumbs to generic entry. However, Datamonitor expects a relatively low impact of generics on inhaled combination products, although price discounting and patient switching will vary by country.
While the ICS/LABA class will remain unrivalled as the most profitable in asthma, it will see significant changes. The first ICS/LABA generics are expected to enter the market from 2013. However, greater patient switching is expected from current market leaders to the first once-daily ICS/LABAs, than to generics.
Your key questions answered
- How can generics compete with new product launches in the ICS/LABA class?
- How will current market leaders be impacted by additional product launches and which products will resist brand erosion?
- How are class dynamics changing in asthma and which drug classes will be the most profitable in 2021?
- How do asthma markets differ across the seven major markets and how will these markets react to events over the next 10 years?