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Countries covered: Croatia
The Chinese are interested in the Adriatic. There have been talks recently between representatives of the Beijing government and Croatia on the possibility of major investments in a series of big projects, across shipping, airports, tourism and the timber industry, amounting to a reputed EUR10bn (US$13.3bn). In this context COSCO, the Chinese shipping company, was said to be interested in operating Rijeka Port on a long-term concession basis. It also expressed interest in the port of Ploce. Nacional magazine said COSCO representatives had begun negotiations with the Croatian government, as part of the wider framework agreement. Earlier, in February, newspaper Poslovni Dnevnik said that Chinese companies had expressed interest in building a new terminal at Zagreb airport.
The worst of the recession in Croatia is over, but the operating environment is still difficult for the ports and shipping sector. GDP will be back in positive territory this year, but growth will be only 0.5% after last year’s slump of 5.8%. There are a number of factors holding the local economy back, including high unemployment, weak domestic demand, and some uncertainty over the pace of the wider European recovery. We believe the road to eventual Croatian EU accession still has some twists and turns to be negotiated, and requires more reform of the local economy. Overall, the outlook for growth is modest, with average annual GDP expansion of 2.7% in the period running up to 2014, a notably lower rate than the 4.1% achieved in the years before the 2009 recession.
Croatia’s two largest ports, Rijeka and Ploce, suffered severe double-digit falls in cargo volume and container throughput in 2009. The scenario we now see unfolding has both of them experiencing a relatively strong, but single-digit recovery this year. We think cargo volumes will exceed the general Croatian economic growth rate because of the greater dynamism in regional transit trade, which depends not just on Croatia but on neighbouring countries in the ports’ hinterland. BMI is predicting tonnage growth of 5.9% at Rijeka to 8.657mn tonnes this year, and a recovery of 8.6% to 3.11mn tonnes at Ploce. In terms of box traffic Rijeka will see 34.1% expansion to 85,921 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while Ploce will register 8.9% growth to 28,225TEUs.
Croatian trade will outpace the domestic economy. We expect total trade value, measured in real terms, to grow by 3.3% this year, ahead of the predicted 0.5% increase in GDP. For the entire five-year forecast period to 2014, average annual foreign trade growth will be 5.3%, almost double GDP growth. Over that period exports will lead the way, with average annual expansion of 5.7% – ahead of import growth of 4.9%.
We believe the main downside risk to our Croatian shipping forecasts comes from a potential delay in the country’s planned European Union accession process. Problems and delays may also emerge connected with the border dispute with Slovenia or the necessary domestic reform process to meet EU good
The Chinese are interested in the Adriatic. There have been talks recently between representatives of the Beijing government and Croatia on the possibility of major investments in a series of big projects, across shipping, airports, tourism and the timber industry, amounting to a reputed EUR10bn (US$13.3bn). In this context COSCO, the Chinese shipping company, was said to be interested in operating Rijeka Port on a long-term concession basis. It also expressed interest in the port of Ploce. Nacional magazine said COSCO representatives had begun negotiations with the Croatian government, as part of the wider framework agreement. Earlier, in February, newspaper Poslovni Dnevnik said that Chinese companies had expressed interest in building a new terminal at Zagreb airport.
The worst of the recession in Croatia is over, but the operating environment is still difficult for the ports and shipping sector. GDP will be back in positive territory this year, but growth will be only 0.5% after last year’s slump of 5.8%. There are a number of factors holding the local economy back, including high unemployment, weak domestic demand, and some uncertainty over the pace of the wider European recovery. We believe the road to eventual Croatian EU accession still has some twists and turns to be negotiated, and requires more reform of the local economy. Overall, the outlook for growth is modest, with average annual GDP expansion of 2.7% in the period running up to 2014, a notably lower rate than the 4.1% achieved in the years before the 2009 recession.
Croatia’s two largest ports, Rijeka and Ploce, suffered severe double-digit falls in cargo volume and container throughput in 2009. The scenario we now see unfolding has both of them experiencing a relatively strong, but single-digit recovery this year. We think cargo volumes will exceed the general Croatian economic growth rate because of the greater dynamism in regional transit trade, which depends not just on Croatia but on neighbouring countries in the ports’ hinterland. BMI is predicting tonnage growth of 5.9% at Rijeka to 8.657mn tonnes this year, and a recovery of 8.6% to 3.11mn tonnes at Ploce. In terms of box traffic Rijeka will see 34.1% expansion to 85,921 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while Ploce will register 8.9% growth to 28,225TEUs.
Croatian trade will outpace the domestic economy. We expect total trade value, measured in real terms, to grow by 3.3% this year, ahead of the predicted 0.5% increase in GDP. For the entire five-year forecast period to 2014, average annual foreign trade growth will be 5.3%, almost double GDP growth. Over that period exports will lead the way, with average annual expansion of 5.7% – ahead of import growth of 4.9%.
We believe the main downside risk to our Croatian shipping forecasts comes from a potential delay in the country’s planned European Union accession process. Problems and delays may also emerge connected with the border dispute with Slovenia or the necessary domestic reform process to meet EU goodCroatia governance criteria. Among the stumbling blocks are the need for clear and effective anti-corruption measures, the need to end government subsidies for loss-making state-owned shipyards, and judicial reform.governance criteria. Among the stumbling blocks are the need for clear and effective anti-corruption measures, the need to end government subsidies for loss-making state-owned shipyards, and judicial reform.
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping Overview
Dry Bulk Overview
Liquid Bulk Sector Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Port of Ploce
Overview
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Port of Rijeka
Overview
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
A.P. MØLLER-MAERSK
Mediterranean Shipping Company
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
Hapag-Lloyd
Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
China Shipping (CSCL)
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
Hanjin Shipping
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
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