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BMI retains its robust five-year growth forecast for the Kazakhstan pharmaceutical market, with the US dollar value of the market rebounding on the back of a resurgent local currency in 2010. Our forecast sees a strong economy - driven by increasing oil and gas output and anticipated strong global prices for these exports - and appreciating currency over five-year and ten-year forecast periods. BMI calculates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in US dollar terms of 17.47% for 2009-2014. Full-year data for 2009 showed an 18-22% boost in market value in local terms, with a slight contraction in US dollar value.
For Kazakhstan’s bureaucrats and pharmaceutical producers, the goal is to deliver tangible increases in domestic production to meet President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s target of ensuring that 50% of medicines, in volume terms, are domestically sourced by 2014. Local production, according to the Farmmedindustriya industry association, increased by 23.4% to KZT12.4bn (US$83.7mn) in 2009. A decisive factor in supporting local output will be state purchasing. State-owned distributor SK Farmatsiya reported an increase in its share of domestically-sourced purchasing in 2009 from 8% to 23%, in volume terms. Officials say the country is on course to meet the 2014 deadline, while the country has adopted an industrial plan for the industry and a number of new production facilities are in the pipeline.
To date there has been little tangible impact from the Customs Union of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus launched at the beginning of 2010. BMI’s view is that the union is less important in terms of internal pharmaceutical trade - at least during the forecast period - but a significant player amid plans to harmonise market authorisation and other regulatory standards. Harmonisation, if achieved, could make these three key CIS markets easier to navigate for all players - an important development. However, some major regulatory gaps remain in Kazakhstan, such as the absence of a finalised set of local Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) standards - despite a 2014 GMP compliance deadline - and a need to develop the country’s formulary system and link it to the Essential Drugs List.
The country’s pipeline of domestic production projects represents, potentially, the most far-reaching development for the local sector since privatisation in the 1990s and BMI estimates the value of current projects at around US$200mn, a multiple of current industry value. Crucially, many of these projects require funding from the Kazakhstan Development Bank (KDB) and National Innovation Fund, as the once-strong private banking sector has yet to recover from the global financial crisis. The furthest advanced project among locals is one by domestic champion Chimpharm to build a new tablet factory in a new industrial park in Astana. The company also has plans to expand production facilities in Shymkent. Other players, including GlobalPharm, Nobel AFF, and Romat are reportedly planning new lines or new plants. If funding can be found in the state and private sector for these projects and the country can remain politically and economically stable, Kazakhstan will have an industry capable of meeting a significant share of local needs and meeting demand in growing regional markets like Uzbekistan.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Kazakhstan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT
Kazakhstan Political SWOT
Kazakhstan Economic SWOT
Kazakhstan - Business Environment Rating
Table: Central And Eastern Europe (CEE) Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Business Environment Ratings, Q310
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Kazakhstan - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Environment
Counterfeit Drugs
Pricing and Reimbursement Regime
Table: Price Components And Add-Ons For Imported And Locally Produced Generic Medicines (KZT)
Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Sector
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Value Of Hospital Purchases
Table: Top 10 INNs By Value Of Hospital Purchases
Healthcare Sector Financing
Table: Top 10 ATC Groups By Value Of Hospital Purchases
Table: Top 10 ATC Groups By Retail Pharmacy Sales
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
Recent Domestic Industry Developments
Wholesale and Retail
Recent Wholesale and Retail Developments
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
Recent Foreign Industry Developments
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Table: Medical Devices Market In Kazakhstan, 2006-2008 (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Prescription Market Forecast
OTC Market Forecast
Patented Market Forecast
Generics Market Forecast
Export/Import Market Forecasts
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Retail Pharmacy Sales
Table: Top 10 Trade Names By Value Of Retail Pharmacy Sales
Company Monitor
Indigenous Companies
Chimpharm
Romat FK
Foreign Companies
Novartis (Lek & Sandoz)
Sanofi-Aventis
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Nycomed
Merck & Co
Pfizer
Ranbaxy
Country Snapshot: Kazakhstan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
Forecast Tables
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