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We have substantially revised upward our expectations of sales growth in South Korea’s auto market in 2010. We now anticipate that domestic vehicles sales will rise 16% y-o-y during 2010 as a whole, compared with our earlier forecast of 6%. This would result in total new vehicle sales in the domestic market during 2010 of 1,618,462 units. This revision to our forecast follows an adjustment of interest rate expectations (the cost of borrowing is likely to remain on hold, owing to the appointment of a dovish central bank chief and low inflation) and reasonably firm car sales figures during Q110. In the first three months of 2010, new vehicle sales in South Korea rose 35.9% y-o-y, to 349,663 units. During the remainder of the year, the rate of sales growth should moderate in percentage terms. The rise in car sales in the initial months of 2010 have been buoyed in percentage terms by base effects, as sales in the first months of 2009 (the nadir of the economic downturn) were extremely depressed. These % y-o-y base effects will fade as 2010 wears on.
The continued growth in domestic sales will, in turn, support production, which we now think will rise nearly 17%, to 4.09mn vehicles, for 2010 as a whole. This represents an upward revision to the 6% production growth forecast we published last quarter. KAMA reported in April 2010 that vehicle production in Q110 was 974,365 units, a rise of 41.6% y-o-y.
The country generated very strong vehicle production figures and exports during the first quarter of the year (production rose 41.6% y-o-y in the first three months f 2010, and most vehicles produced in the country end up being exported). We now forecast that vehicle exports in 2010 will register 2.51mn units, a rise of 17% from 2009 (in terms of % y-o-y growth, positive base effects will fade later in the year, as the Q109 figures were very low).
Exports of new vehicles from South Korea surged by 47.5% y-o-y in March 2010, to 238,631 units, according to KAMA. Growth in sales in the US, Western Europe, Latin America and the Middle East were all behind this very strong performance in March. Exports for Q110 rose 35.2% y-o-y, to 589,969, units.
So far 2010 has been a good year for both Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors. Kia’s global sales performance remained excellent in the first three months of 2010. The company’s global sales rose 69% y-o-y, to 475,144 units. Meanwhile, Hyundai’s global sales rose 36% y-o-y, to 840,258 units.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Korea Auto Industry SWOT
South Korea Political SWOT
South Korea Economic SWOT
South Korea Business Environment SWOT
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
Asian Auto Sector Becomes the Sum of Its Parts
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Auto Industry Asia Pacific
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production And Sales
South Korea Auto Sector – Historical Data and Forecasts
Trade
South Korea Auto Sector – Historical Data and Forecasts
Economic Contribution
South Korea Auto Sector – Historical Data and Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: South Korea – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Manufacturers
Sales By Domestic Manufacturers, 2008
Industry Developments
Company Developments
Imported Brands
South Korea – Top 10 Import Vehicle Sales
South Korea – Imported Luxury Vehicle Sales
Suppliers
Company Monitor
Geely Strategy Supports BMI View
South Korea – Imported Luxury Vehicle Sales
Company Profiles
Hyundai Motor
Kia Motors
GM Daewoo Auto & Technology
Ssangyong Motor
Renault Samsung Motors
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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Related Reports:
South Korea Infrastructure Report Q3 2010
South Korea Metals Report Q3 2010
South Korea Freight Transport Report Q3 2010
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