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U.S. consumers have been caught in an economic freefall over the past two years, but the crisis appears to be nearing an end. However, the significant changes in attitudes and behaviors brought about by these recessionary pressures persist, with consumers continuing to rethink what value means and monitor spending carefully. In this environment, the growing focus on nutrition as a means to wellness—coupled with renewed interest in eating at home and demand for “comfort food”—has spurred bakeries to provide healthy products that offer high-quality ingredients and a restaurant-quality experience at appealing prices.
These combined trends have resulted in steady, if modest, growth in sales of fresh baked goods over the past five years. Retail sales of fresh bread and sweet baked items topped $16 billion in 2009, up 4.2% from the previous year. And as bakeries grow ever more creative in meeting consumer demand for specific types of products and the economy improves, this rate of growth is likely to improve. Taking all market trends into account, Packaged Facts projects that the market will grow by 26% between 2009 and 2014, to reach $20.1 billion at retail.
A completely new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers a comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines baked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, using preparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) and thaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which baked goods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditional supermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouse clubs. The report also examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in baked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés.
A special feature is May/June 2010 custom Packaged Facts research on consumer attitudes and purchasing patterns. Specifically tailored for this report, the survey details consumer preferences for baked goods channels and items purchased, in addition to other psychographic indicators. Additional demographic analysis derives from data compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY, including indexing of consumers most or least likely to often eat different types of breads. The report also breaks out sales by type of bread or sweet baked good for numerous segments, details market growth drivers and projects future sales, identifies competitive opportunities including sustainability appeals, and tracks trends at in-store bakeries.
Table Of contents
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Introduction
Scope of Report
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Retailing Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 1-2: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Supermarkets
Mass Merchandisers
Natural Food Stores
Warehouse Stores
Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Whole Grains for Health
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Flavor Adventure
Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
Consumer Trends
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Figure 1-3: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
Chapter 2: Market Trends
Introduction
Scope of Report
Excluded Products
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Table 2-1: Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars)
Table 2-2: In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of dollars)
Table 2-3: SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs. 2009 (in millions of dollars)
Market Composition
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Packaged Products Break Out Differently
Figure 2-2: Share of In-Store Bakery Department Dollar Sales by Product Classification, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Table 2-4: Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Table 2-5: Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries, May/June 2010 (percent)
Cakes and Cupcakes
Figure 2-3: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Cake, 2009 (percent)
Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets
Cookies
Pies
Baker’s Perspective: Rocky Mountain Pies
Other Desserts
Breads
Figure 2-4: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Bread, 2009 (percent)
Table 2-6: Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type: May/June 2010
Artisan Breads
Rolls
Figure 2-5: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Rolls, 2009 (percent)
Doughnuts
Figure 2-6: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Doughnuts, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Goods
Figure 2-7: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Sweet Goods, 2009 (percent)
Muffins
Figure 2-8: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Muffins, 2009 (percent)
Bagels
Market Outlook
Economy Slowly Improving
Table 2-7: Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in General vs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)
Table 2-8: Agreement with Statement, “Compared to 3 Months Ago, How Much Are You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?”, May/June 2010 (percent)
Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable Luxury
Figure 2-9: Changes in Consumer Bakery Buying Habits, 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-10: Bakery Items Consumers Purchase Less Frequently, 2009 (percent)
Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods Market
Eating Healthy
Table 2-9: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Table 2-10: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains on Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Heart-Healthy Grains
Gluten-Free and Other Allergy Concerns
Portion Control and Convenience
Natural and Organic
“Clean Label” Foods
Baking—Naturally
Environmental Concerns
Impact of Healthcare Reform
Figure 2-11: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “Which Topic Will Be Most Important to Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-12: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “What Do You Think Consumers Will Be Looking for in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-13: Retailer Survey: “Which Topic Will Have the Greatest Impact on Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-14: Retailer Survey: “What Initiatives Are Your Company Most Likely to Focus on in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Food and Beverage Industry Reacts
Food Safety Legislation
Baked Goods Sales Through 2014
Table 2-11: Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)
Chapter 3: Retail Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 3-1: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-2: Fresh Sweet Baked Goods: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-3: In-Store Bakery: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Table 3-1: In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010 (percent)
Table 3-2: Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010
Preparation Methods
Table 3-3: How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Table 3-4: Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010
Supermarkets
Illustration 3-1: Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses—Fresh Baked Cakes and Pies Featuring Local Strawberries
Illustration 3-2: Fresh Baked Cake and Pie Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses Featuring “Remarkable Buys!”
Mass Merchandisers
Illustration 3-3: In-Store Bakery Display in Walmart Featuring “Unbeatable Prices”
Illustration 3-4: In-Store Bakery Department Self-Serve Pastry Case in Walmart
Illustration 3-5: In-Store Bakery Department in Walmart—Location and Banners
Natural Food Stores
Illustration 3-6: In-Store Bakery Department in Whole Foods—Gourmet Pastry Case
Warehouse Stores
Illustration 3-7: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Cup Cakes and Sheet Cakes
Illustration 3-8: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Table Displays
Wholesale and Retail Bakeries
Wholesalers Ramp Up Production
Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally
Illustration 3-10: Façade of Newport Beach, CA’s Wonderland Bakery
Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat Bakery
Chapter 4: Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Table 4-1: “I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products,” May/June 2010 (percent)
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Illustration 4-1: Display Case of Single-Serve Desserts at Whole Foods
Whole Grains for Health
Table 4-2: Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010 (percent)
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods
Illustration 4-2: Whole Foods Gluten Free Bakehouse Label
Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Olive Oil as Ingredient
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Table 4-3: Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009-March 2010 (percent of U.S. households)
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Table 4-4: Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010 (percent)
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Whoopie Pies
Caramelized Flavors
Flavor Adventure
Retailer Profile: Sucré
Illustration 4-3: Gift Box of Macaroons from New Orleans’ Sucré Sweet Shop
Bacon…and Cupcakes?
Chapter 5: Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Table 5-1: Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets, 2009 (in millions of dollars)
Table 5-2: Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains, 2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households)
Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafés Find Success
Panera Bread Co
Table 5-3: Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
Table 5-4: Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
[Illustration 5-1]: Donation Bin for Panera’s Nonprofit Store Concept
Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
Chapter 6: Consumer Trends
Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Table 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-2: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Figure 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-3: Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences
Table 6-4: Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often, and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics
Table 6-5: Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index)
Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-6: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-7: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-8: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-9: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-10: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-11: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-12: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Don’t Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals,” 2009 (percent and index)
Demographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-13: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-14: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-15: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-16: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-17: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Table 6-18: Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-19: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen’s Expense
Table 6-20: Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics
Table 6-21: Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009 (percent and index)
Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels
Table 6-22: Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households)
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
Table 6-23: Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
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