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Introduction
Following more than a year of global financial crisis and economic downturn, the growth and expansion of the US renewable power industry is testament to the inherent attractiveness and resilience of the sector. Renewables will continue to be the bright spot of the US economy in 2010, given that the drivers that propelled the sector for the past five years are still at work.
Scope
- Data and analysis of installed capacities and generation across all sources of renewable energies in the US, at a national level and by state.
- A detailed identification of the key drivers and barriers shaping these markets, and the likely growth potential of each renewable technology.
- A detailed examination of new technology introductions and innovations, and future areas of opportunity for manufacturers and power providers.
- Up to date competitive intelligence on key players operating across all renewable energy technologies, nascent and established, across the US.
Highlights
The economic and financial crisis should have dealt a devastating blow to the renewables industry. Private investment in 2009 declined dramatically but was buttressed by record levels of public funds. These must now play a catalytic role in supporting capital market solutions to permanently secure the financing options needed by the industry.
The market is almost nearly entirely supported by public policy. The vast and growing number and types of government, utility and non-profit financial incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency in the US help explain growth levels in these markets. Production tax credits and renewable portfolio standards are key market drivers.
Not all renewable energy technologies are equal or offer the same growth prospects in the US. Solar is likely to live in the shadow of wind energy for several years to come, while hydropower, biomass and geothermal make modest inroads into the wider US energy market. The outlook for nascent wave and tidal energy markets will gradually improve.
Reasons to Purchase
- Determine how different elements of US legislation and market trends are influencing the development of all renewable energy markets.
- Assess how the renewable energy capacity mix will evolve, what the key opportunities will be and which states offer the greatest potential and why.
- Understand how renewable energy asset strategies are likely to evolve and how and where your company should interact with renewables in the US.
Table of Content
Overview
Catalyst
Executive summary
Methodology
Sources
Table of Contents
Table of figures
US power market and related political developments
Power landscape
Weak economic activity and reduced demand for cooling led to a 0.9% decrease in power demand in 2008 versus a 2.3% increase in 2007
Power generation in the US is currently dominated by coal-burn,even though the installed capacity of gas generation is greater than coal
2008 US power generation snapshot: conventional generation is dominated by coal,natural gas and nuclear power generation
Renewable power overview
Renewable energy generation output since 1996 is characterized by a decline in hydro output,offset by sustained increases in wind
2008 US power generation snapshot: growth of renewable power generation is driven mainly by wind power
Growth in wind power generation has outpaced that of all other forms of generation,albeit from a very low initial installed base
Gas installed capacity in the US is greater than coal,yet coal power generation is much larger than gas power generation
Utility power plants account for the majority of electric installed capacity in the US
Power generation in 2008:
Net capacity additions of wind power in the US are outstripping net additions of gas capacity
Coal,petroleum and nuclear installed capacities have declined since 1997; renewables,gas,and other sources make up the total net addition
The US is a global leader in wind,biomass and geothermal power installed capacity and ranks first for new capacity investments
Despite the economic downturn in 2008,the average retail price for all US customers increased in 47 out of the 50 states
Despite decreases in retail power volumes in 2008,revenues actually increased,driven by higher power prices
Fossil fuel prices showed significant volatility during 2008,which contributed to an increase in average retail electricity prices
Estimated US power plant emissions were down in 2008,due to decreased fuel consumption
Drivers of renewable power
Growth in renewable energy generation in the US is spurred on by a range of federal,state-based and local incentives
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Renewable energy and energy efficiency investments in the US are underpinned by a wide range of sub-national financial incentives
Renewable energy and energy efficiency investments in the US are underpinned by a wide range of state climate regulations
The production tax credit is often considered as the main driver of renewable power generation growth in the US over the past decade
Renewable portfolio standards have been most successful at stimulating new renewables when deployed alongside the PTC
Public support for action on climate change is variable but an overall upwards trend has emerged over the last decade
Resilient venture capital levels are a strong growth driver for the wider cleantech industry
The US American Power Act presents significant incentives for companies operating across the renewable energy value chain
In stark contrast to the previous administration,the new Democrat administration has placed green at the heart of its political agenda
The US has embarked on a program to develop renewable energy projects in the waters of the Outer Continental Shelf
Resistors of renewable power
Forces driving the current growth of the US renewables industry are being met by sizable opposing forces
Failure to price CO2 emissions
Licensing and environmental issues also present significant barriers to the uptake of renewable energy technologies
Licensing and permitting issues
Environmental issues
Renewable generation in the US has thus far been punctuated by ‘stop-start’ investment under the PTC
Investment in US renewables remain contingent on federal PTC policy continuity
Ensuring renewable energy access to existing and new transmission infrastructure is another imperative in the US
Ensuring renewable energy access to existing and new transmission infrastructure is another imperative in the US
The 2009 economic and financial crisis should have dealt a devastating blow to the US renewables industry
Despite the economic and financial crisis,renewable investment dipped only slightly,supported by massive public spending
US wind power market
Current scenario
The US wind energy market installed nearly 10GW in 2009,maintaining its global leadership in installed capacity
Global wind power has been very resilient in the face of the global recession and financial crisis,but the future is less certain
Wind farm projects,both new build and M&A,are front-loaded and capital intensive
Project lifetimes,coupled with discount rates,have a significant influence over the annual costs of wind power generation
The cost of capital,reflected in the discount or interest rate,has a high degree of influence on wind turbine development costs
The 2009 economic and financial crisis presented a significant challenge for the US wind industry
The US wind industry boom continued during 2009 despite the economic and financial crisis,supported by vast public spending
The world’s wind industry defied the economic downturn and saw its power capacity increase by close to one third in 2009
Texas,once known as an oil and gas-producing state,has become the nation’s top producer of wind energy
GE Energy is the largest turbine supplier,NextEra the largest overall wind owner and Xcel Energy the largest utility wind owner
Drivers of the wind power market
The factors that drive the development of the US renewables energy industry also drive the uptake of wind power energy
Over the last 20 years,the cost of wind turbines has fallen dramatically while their efficiency has improved significantly
From a meteorological perspective,US wind power potential is tremendous and is greatest in the Great Plains region
Resistors of the wind power market
Forces driving the current growth of wind power in the US are being met by significant opposing forces
Failure to price CO2 emissions
Environmental issues and policy limitations also act as a barrier for the growing wind power industry in the US
Environmental issues
Policy limitations
Transmission constraints-planning,paying and permitting-form one of the most sizable barriers facing the US wind industry
Outlook for the wind power market
The outlook for wind energy in the US is cautiously optimistic despite possible manufacturing and project bottlenecks
Wind energy will continue to be a bright spot of the US economy in 2010 but public finance must power private capital investment
US solar power market
Current scenario
The solar industry relies on two different forms of technology to convert sunlight into electricity
Long derided as uneconomic,the nascent solar PV market is gaining significant ground thanks to its strong green credentials
Following phenomenal growth in 2008,2009 was a year of more modest growth for the global solar PV power market
The US solar industry maintained its impressive growth rate in 2009 despite slowdown in the housing and construction sectors
In 2009,California retained its leading position as the US state with the highest level of installed solar PV capacity
Throughout the years US solar energy consumption was almost exclusively used for residential energy purposes
The number of US firms involved in the solar energy supply chain has steadily risen and is projected to grow further
Although solar export markets are growing,the US home solar sector is losing market share to manufacturers from abroad
US utilities are beginning to expand their asset base in the solar energy market
In the US,First Solar is the top PV manufacturer and crystalline silicon is the most widespread form of PV technology
PV deployment will not be limited by suitable land area availability; CSP,however,has the most opportunity in the Southwest
The PV market is divided into four market sectors on the demand side
Solar manufacturers,rather than established energy companies,are exploiting opportunities presented by the fast-expanding market
With new companies and fresh markets wrestling for prominence,strong industry consolidation and vertical integration are expected
For utilities,the horizontal integration of fixed-cost solar assets presents an unhedged yet comparatively safe business model
Utilities could quickly become the largest and one of the most important customers for the solar industry
Solar will increasingly form part of utilities’ horizontally integrated renewable operations,with upstream benefits but barriers downstream
Drivers of the solar power market
Much like other renewable energy sectors,the US solar energy sector is supported by federal legislation
State level grants and incentives are the primary driver for continued growth of the solar energy market in the US
Other economic and financial benefits also attract growing numbers of private investors
Resistors of the solar power market
Several economic barriers may hamper further solar energy growth
Solar power is still comparatively expensive and,for the moment,remains more expensive than most competing technologies
For solar power generation,true grid parity depends upon the evolution of solar power costs,carbon costs and power prices
Outlook for the solar power market
Having developed at a rapid pace,solar now faces key challenges,many of which will be offset by even larger opportunities
Growth of the US solar market is on the cusp of step change
US hydro power market
Current scenario
Hydropower is a clean and renewable energy source,but it is not without problems
Hydropower capacity in the US remained constant between 2000 and 2008
Total installed hydro power capacity in the US is second only to China,but Canada and Brazil are quickly catching up
US West Coast states lead in terms of installed conventional hydroelectric capacity
Renewable energies in the US are growing but conventional hydro capacity has remained flat
Renewable energies and natural gas are racing to fill the generation gap as coal recedes,but hydropower remains flat
Total net power generation in the US in January 2010 was slightly higher than in January 2009
Monthly net generation from hydro power fell significantly on the West Coast in January 2010
Despite having the world’s second largest hydropower asset base,the US only ranks fourth in terms of hydroelectric consumption,trailing China,Canada and Brazil
Utilities,independent power producers and industrial self-generators are the three key hydropower generators in the US
Drivers of the hydro power market
Existing hydropower has low operating costs and new hydropower is among the least expensive forms of low-carbon electricity
Legislation as well as licensing and financing rules are changing the hydropower landscape in the US
Energy Policy Act of 2005
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009
Resistors of the hydro power market
The obstacles to the further development and deployment of hydropower are significant
Outlook for the hydro power market
The nature of global hydropower is changing
Growth opportunities for the US hydropower industry are the best they have been for the past three decades
US geothermal power market
Current scenario
Geothermal energy is a clean,renewable and limitless source of energy supply
Four types of geothermal power plants are currently in operation for commercial use
A variety of technologies have emerged to adapt geothermal energy plants to specific geological conditions
Following eight years of stagnation,installed geothermal capacity in the US has recently risen
Electricity net generation from geothermal energy has remained stable in relation to other renewable energies
The geothermal energy sector is dominated by independent power producers that have specialist knowledge and skills
The US holds a world leading position in geothermal energy capacity
Geothermal heat is used in many different non-power generating applications across the US
Drivers of the geothermal power market
Geothermal capital costs can be among the lowest of all forms of renewable power generation
State renewable standards coupled to federal stimulus and tax incentives will stimulate growth in the geothermal power industry
Resistors of the geothermal power market
Barriers to the expansion of the geothermal industry can be of a financial,geological or environmental nature
Outlook for the geothermal power market
Geothermal power opportunities may exist in regions and applications thus far largely underexploited by the industry
Geothermal resources have the potential to play a much more significant role in the US’ energy mix
Environmental benefits and technological progress could pave the way for increasing geothermal energy production
US biomass power market
Current scenario
Biomass power generation is derived from a variety of organic fuels
In the US,waste-to-energy combustion and landfill gas are by-products of the municipal solid waste industry
Biomass power generation systems include direct and co-firing plants as well as gasification and pyrolysis processes
Biomass power generation often capitalizes on the anaerobic digestion of waste and the modularization of systems
Bioenergy accounts for roughly 9.5% of the total renewable capacity and around 1.1% of the overall capacity in the US
Biomass is a major source of energy in emerging economies,but biogas is predominantly used in developed countries
California,Florida,Maine and Virginia lead the way in terms of installed biomass power capacity in the US
Co-firing of biomass and coal is used across the US although the highest potential lies on the east coast
US net power generation from biomass energy has remained relatively stable over recent years
Drivers of the biomass power market
Vast and varied biomass resources exist across the US
Resistors of the biomass power market
Supply chain technologies and comparative economics act as the main barriers to greater biomass utilization
Outlook for the geothermal power market
Biomass energy will grow on the back of the wide range of environmental,agricultural and national benefits it provides
Advanced genetic and agricultural engineering will help to increase and optimize the availability of biomass resources
Large commercial opportunities may arise from the latest plans to increase the use of biomass thermal energy
The industry is poised for growth with support from an appropriate mix of R&D,public policies and market pull
US ocean power market
Current scenario
Ocean energy is a nascent market eager to replicate the success of the global wind power industry
The coastal stretches of Alaska harbor by far the greatest ocean energy resource potentials
The energy extraction potential of ocean power in the US is dwarfed by the country’s tremendous offshore wind potential
Several sites for ocean power projects have been suggested along the US northeast coast,where RPSs play a vital role
Tidal power is slightly more advanced elsewhere but pilot projects are now also being launched in the US
Interest in US ocean energy is now steadily growing
Major tidal current resources in the US are found along all coastal areas as well as around Hawaii and the Pacific islands
Verdant Power’s Free Flow tidal power technology is the first project to be nearing commercialization in the US
The Ocean Renewable Power Company is developing the first tidal turbine generator unit
The Ocean Power Technology Company is developing its Powerbuoy wave power device
The Pelamis Waver Power company operates the world’s first commercial wave power project
European countries made the first attempts to establish wave power technology as a serious alternative with a credible future
Ocean thermal energy conversion is the least well known form of ocean power generation technology
The UK is currently leading efforts to develop and establish ocean power projects
Opportunities for synergies exist between regulatory agencies,industry trade groups,utilities and renewable technology manufacturers
Drivers of the ocean power market
Several new federal statutes have been introduced that will benefit the ocean energy industry
Federal legislation
State legislation and financiers may further drive the ocean energy industry in the near future
State legislation
Private and corporate finance
Resistors of the ocean power market
Operational limitations
Wave power is mostly,but not always,available under low speed,high force,multi-direction wave conditions
A clearer picture needs to emerge as to the true potential of ocean energy power
Legislative limitations
Environmental and resource limitations
Financial limitations
The outlook for the ocean power industry will improve,as it learns from the wind and solar industries and from developments abroad
APPENDIX
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